The Rate Shift

From Near-Cut to Near-Rise: The Fastest Reversal in Recent Memory

In February, four members wanted to cut. In March, it was unanimous hold. In April, one member voted to raise rates to 4%. The full range of committee opinion has shifted from "we should cut now" to "we might need to raise" in the space of three meetings. That is an extraordinary shift in sentiment in eight weeks.

The driver is the same as March: inflation and the Middle East energy shock. The committee member who voted to raise was signalling that the current rate — at 3.75% with inflation at 2.8% — is providing insufficient restraint given the inflationary risks in the global environment. It is a minority view, but it matters: it tells you the committee will not cut until inflation is substantially and convincingly lower.

For property investors planning their next move, this significantly changes the calculus. Rate cuts are not around the corner. The window of cheap money that many expected in 2026 is not arriving. That changes strategy — particularly for buy-to-let, where thin margins get thinner when refinancing costs stay elevated.

MPC Vote Evolution — From Dovish to Hawkish in 10 Weeks

The committee swung from near-cut to near-raise between February and April 2026. This is the data behind the shift.

Source: Bank of England MPC minutes, April 2026

The Renters Rights Act

Section 21 Ends on 1 May. Here Is What Changes and What It Means.

The Renters Rights Act 2025 comes into force on 1 May 2026. This is the most significant change to the private rental sector since the introduction of Section 21 itself. For landlords, the change is structural — not administrative.

28 Apr 2026 Last date to serve a valid Section 21 notice by first-class post before abolition
1 May 2026 Section 21 abolished. All ASTs become assured tenancies automatically. No-fault eviction no longer possible.
31 Jul 2026 Last date to issue court proceedings using a pre-commencement Section 21 notice
From May 2026 Landlords must use Section 8 grounds to regain possession — proving a legal reason and accepting longer timescales

An Allsop survey of over 1,000 landlords found 30% plan to sell their entire portfolio, with 18% planning to reduce it. That is nearly half the private rental sector either contracting or exiting. Buy-to-let purchase loans fell 14.9% in Q1 2026. The landlord class is not being destroyed — but it is getting smaller, and those remaining will need margins that justify the increased regulatory burden.

Every landlord selling out of residential buy-to-let is a potential commercial investor. The same capital, applied differently, can access yields of 5–12% without the Section 8 complexity, with tenants who pay their own repair costs and insurance.
April signal to watch: How many landlords actually sell, and where that stock goes. If it goes to other landlords, supply stays in the rental market. If it goes to owner-occupiers, supply contracts and rents rise further — increasing the argument for building more rental stock, which plays directly into the commercial conversion opportunity.
Andrew Roberts

Andrew Roberts

Andrew Roberts is a CIMA Chartered Global Management Accountant and commercial property investor specialising in permitted development conversions, with a 100% prior approval success rate. Find out more.